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Inversion Strategist - 反转思维策略师

这是一个决策方法论技能,基于数学家卡尔·雅可比的名言"反转,永远反转"和查理·芒格的智慧:"告诉我我会死在哪里,我就永远不去那里。" 核心理念:与其问"如何成功",不如问"什么会确保我失败",然后系统地避开那些路径。芒格认为,长期优势来自于"持续地不愚蠢",而不是"试图变得非常聪明"。 一、六步流程: 1.陈述目标:明确定义你想要达成的结果 2.反转目标:问"什么会确保我无法达成这个目标?" 3.列出失败路径:找出7-10条路径,包括明显的和隐蔽的 4.分类:分为致命级(🔴)、破坏级(🟡)、恼人级(🟢) 5.转化为规避策略:每条路径转为具体的规避方法 6.构建反检查清单:"永不X"清单 + "总是Y"清单 二、输出格式:目标→反转问题→失败路径分级→规避策略→反检查清单→正面检查清单。 三、适用场景:风险评估、战略规划、复杂决策、项目启动前的防御性思考。

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Skill 内容

--- name: inversion-strategist description: Flip problems upside down - instead of "how to succeed", ask "how to definitely fail" then avoid those paths. Use when user says "invert", "inversion", "flip it", "opposite approach", "how would this fail", "avoid failure", "what NOT to do", "Munger", "anti-goals", "guarantee failure". --- # Inversion Strategist ## The Core Principle "Invert, always invert." - Carl Jacobi Instead of: "How do I achieve X?" Ask: "What would GUARANTEE I DON'T achieve X?" Then: Systematically avoid those things. ## The Process 1. **State the goal** 2. **Invert it:** "What would guarantee failure?" 3. **List failure paths** (7-10, obvious AND subtle) 4. **Categorize:** Fatal / Damaging / Annoying 5. **Flip to avoidance strategies** 6. **Build anti-checklist** ## Output Format ``` GOAL: [What you want] INVERTED: "How would I guarantee failure at [goal]?" FAILURE PATHS: 🔴 FATAL: • [Path] → AVOID BY: [Strategy] 🟡 DAMAGING: • [Path] → AVOID BY: [Strategy] 🟢 ANNOYING: • [Path] → AVOID BY: [Strategy] ANTI-CHECKLIST: □ Never [behavior] □ Never [behavior] PRO-CHECKLIST: □ Always [opposite of failure] □ Always [opposite of failure] ``` ## Charlie Munger Wisdom "It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent." "Tell me where I'm going to die, and I'll never go there." ## Integration Compounds with: - **first-principles-decomposer** → Rebuild from fundamentals after inverting - **pre-mortem-analyst** → Inversion finds paths; pre-mortem stress-tests timeline - **six-thinking-hats** → Black Hat is inversion-lite; combine for thorough analysis --- See references/examples.md for Artem-specific inversions

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