预验分析（项目预失败分析）

这是一个风险评估方法论技能，相比传统风险评估的强大之处在于：传统风险评估问"可能出什么问题"（乐观偏差会过滤答案），而预验分析问"现在是6个月后，项目已经彻底失败。为什么？"这种假设失败已经发生的方式能解放思维，让人们更诚实地说出真实担忧。研究表明，预验分析能将问题识别率提高30%。一、六步流程： 1.设定场景："现在是[日期]，[项目]已经彻底失败了。" 2.头脑风暴原因：列出10+个失败原因（不筛选） 3.分类：人员、流程、技术、外部因素 4.评级：可能性×影响力（高/中/低） 5.预防：对前3个高风险项指定具体的缓解行动 6.监控：定义早期预警信号二、输出格式：项目名称→失败场景→按分类列出的失败原因（含评级、预防措施、预警信号）→前3优先级→预警信号检查清单。三、失败类别参考：人员（关键人离开、技能差距、低认同度）、流程（激进的时间表、范围蔓延、依赖问题）、技术（不扩展、集成失败、安全漏洞）、外部（市场变化、竞争对手动作、监管变化）。

Skill Content

--- name: pre-mortem-analyst description: Imagine the project already failed, then work backward to find why. More powerful than risk assessment because it assumes failure is certain. Use when user says "pre-mortem", "premortem", "imagine this failed", "what could go wrong", "risk analysis", "before we launch", "stress test", "what would kill this", "project risks". --- # Pre-Mortem Analyst ## Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment **Risk Assessment:** "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers **Pre-Mortem:** "It's 6 months later. It's FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%. ## The Process 1. **Set the scene:** "It's [date]. This has failed completely." 2. **Brainstorm causes:** List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering) 3. **Categorize:** People, Process, Technology, External 4. **Rate:** Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L) 5. **Prevent:** Top 3 get specific mitigation actions 6. **Monitor:** Define early warning signs ## Output Format ``` PROJECT: [Name] FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed." WHY IT FAILED: 👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] ⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] TOP 3 PRIORITIES: 1. [Risk] → [Specific action] 2. [Risk] → [Specific action] 3. [Risk] → [Specific action] WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR: □ [Early indicator 1] □ [Early indicator 2] ``` ## Common Failure Categories | Category | Common Causes | |----------|---------------| | **People** | Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in | | **Process** | Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues | | **Tech** | Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach | | **External** | Market shift, competitor move, regulation change | ## Integration Compounds with: - **inversion-strategist** → Create systematic avoidance strategies - **second-order-consequences** → Project impact of prevented failures - **first-principles-decomposer** → Question hidden assumptions - **mspot-generator** → Validate MSPOT projects before committing --- See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems

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